THE COMBINES, FREE AGENCY, THEN THE DRAFT: The Miami Dolphins enter this year's draft with one of the richest bounties in years, if not ever. They currently have 14 draft picks plus those compensatory picks the NFL will award. The league should award the Dolphins one pick each in Round 3 and 5 (for the loss of Ja'Wuan James and Cameron Wake,). That's 16!
Here are the current selections:
Round 1: 5, 18, 26
Round 2: 39, 56
Round 3: 70, Compensatory pick
Round 4: 142
Round 5: 162, 173, Compensatory pick
Round 6: 185, 197, 202
Round 7: 245, 251
So it is safe to say that the Dolphins are in the strongest position to wheel-and-deal up and down the draft all they want. Conceivably, they could package and offer their three first rounders, plus a second in exchange for Cincinnati's #1. Not that the Bengals' fan base would ever forgive their management for committing to such a trade, but you get the point.
Goes without saying that the only reason the Dolphins might wish to trade away assets is on the chance in obtaining the next Marino. Right now, only two such prospects look promising; Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, their first pick is #5, not #2. So mathematically they could lose out on both QB prospects. The "suck for Luck" crowd remains frustrated, as they understand that by simply losing two more games they would have secured who most likely will be the #2 overall selection in Tua Tagovailoa. In the final analysis, one must balance any positive attitudes coach Brian Flores instilled in the team against what would have been - strategically tanking two more games. The choice was made, so if the Dolphins wish to enhance their chances they're going to have to surrender assets. Here's why.
Joe Burrow appears to be the best quarterback in this year's draft. As much a "sure thing" as it ever gets. Tua Tagovailoa, were not for his untimely injury last November, would also be included in that rare group. Yes, there will no doubt be other QB's that ultimately arise to captain their teams. Perhaps even prove better than the aforementioned, but those names never surface during the draft. They are unknowns. Meaning, a luck of the draw. Desperate teams (Dolphins) cannot afford to gamble. They need the "sure thing," and that is why they will be forced to move to the #2 position. Why? well, aside from the gamble point above, many other teams also want "the sure thing." Teams like the Panthers (#7), Chargers (#6), even Lions (#3) would love to draft Tua under the right conditions. Miami simply has to get to the #2 spot, or they will not be in control of their goal. They would be forced to live with the chance that someone like a Justin Herbert, or Jordan Love develops into something.
So, why is moving into the #2 overall spot critical and not #3? The Lions have that pick and Matthew Stafford, do they not? Why would they need to draft Tua? Quick answer: For the same reason the Dolphins would be willing to sit Tua down during the better part of next year while he fully recuperates. Like the Dolphins under Fitzpatrick, Stafford could provide tutelage. Stafford's contract would be hugely expensive to trade, and cutting him would be out of the question due dead-cap hit, so they are pretty much stuck with him for the remaining year of his contract...but then what?
Simply put, any team other than Detroit aiming to draft Tua is going to have to go to #2, and here is why the Washington Redskins would be listening. There is no ambiguity as who the Redskins are going to go with at quarterback. They drafted Dwayne Haskins just last year, and every indication shows that they will be building their team around him. They are set at that position, but just as important, the next selection after #1 Joe Burrow is Edge-rusher, Chase Young. A position Washington is deep with. What the Redskins really need are linebackers, pass protectors and a number two receiver. All these positions could be addressed to a team drafting say - fifth.
The key to all this strategizing of course is based on the health of Tua Tagovailoa. The growing assumption here being that he will be in high demand. This being the case, Dan Snyder and Ron Rivera will enter the draft fully aware the worth of their #2 pick. They will no doubt listen to some very attractive offers. Trading with the Dolphins would make sense for them, as they would only need to move three spots. Since the Dolphins would be doing so to select Tua, they should rightfully speculate that Edge rusher Chase Young would go #3 to Detroit. After the Giants select their prospect at #4 (Jeffrey Okudah?), they would be in position to draft the best rated LB's, OL or any other position they need. Not to mention the use of those additional assets the Dolphins would include in the trade.
Draft Value Board (key values): 1. 3000, #2. 2600, #3. 2200, #4. 1800. Miami has: #5. 1700, #18. 900, #26. 700, #39. 510, #56. 340, and others.
The value difference between Washington's #2. at 2600 and the Dolphins' #5. at 1700 is 900. The Dolphins could offer their #5, #26, #56 and six-rounder in for sweetener and possibly be in position to pull this off.
Come April 23, we will know.
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